预测2008年美国农产品出口额将达1010亿美元

　　提要：2008年2月21日，在美国农业部农业展望论坛上，美国农业部预测2008年财政年美国农产品出口额将达1010亿美元，比2007年11月的预测值上调了100亿美元，比2007年的出口总额高出190亿美元。这一最新预测值也创造了自2004年以来美国农产品出口额的新高，出口额预测值明显提升的主要原因是新预测的小麦、粗粮和大豆价格比去年11月份高出了一半以上。（食物安全与信息分析项目组编译）

USDA RAISES AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS FORECAST TO RECORD $101 BILLION FOR 2008

WASHINGTON, D.C., February 21, 2008 – At the U.S. Department of Agriculture Agricultural Outlook Forum, Secretary Ed Schafer today announced that U.S. agricultural exports are forecast to reach a record $101 billion for fiscal year 2008, up $10 billion from November's forecast and an unprecedented $19 billion above 2007.
This latest forecast builds off of unprecedented consecutive year to year record exports since 2004. Higher wheat, coarse grain, and soybean prices account for just over half of the revision since November.
"Based on current market conditions, bulk grains, oilseeds, and cotton exports should rise $13.2 billion and account for 70 percent of the overall increase in export value for 2008. Higher prices account for most of this increase, but export volumes are also generally higher," Schafer said. "Coarse grains are forecast to rise 10.9 million tons to 70 million tons and wheat should rise 2.3 million tons."
"We also see further increases in high-value product exports such as fresh and processed fruits and vegetables, tree nuts, pork, beef, poultry meat, and many grocery products. Exports of animal and horticultural products are forecast to rise a combined $3.5 billion in 2008 to record levels. With U.S. agricultural imports forecast at $76.5 billion, we expect a $24.5 billion trade surplus," said Schafer.
Foreign economic growth continues to support gains in consumer incomes and growth in the size of the middle class, particularly in the emerging markets. These consumers tend to spend more on food as their incomes rise, including food imported from the United States. The weaker dollar makes U.S. products very price competitive compared to other suppliers. At the same time, tighter competitor stocks further raise demand for U.S. wheat and corn.